Big 12 preview, part 1: Can Kansas State, UCF make runs at title?
In a recent piece on conference realignment, I gave the Big 12 some free marketing assistance, nicknaming it The Fun Conference, the one most likely to produce nonstop close games, go for it nonstop on fourth downs and make big, bold (and potentially foolish) realignment moves moving forward.
As of 2023, the Big 12 boasts members from Utah to West Virginia to Florida, and it apparently wants to do business in both New York and Mexico and potentially add schools in Washington and Connecticut. Does this plan make actual strategic sense? It’s hard to give a definitive yes. Will it blow up in commissioner Brett Yormark’s face? Maybe. But it sure is bold and easy to root for. And this fall, as the Big 12 welcomes its four Oklahoma and Texas replacements (BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF) while not yet losing the Sooners and Longhorns, it should again be one of the most enjoyable conferences on the planet. OU and Texas are off to the SEC next year, but this will be particularly fun while it lasts.
It’s time to preview this mad amalgamation of teams. There’s not a great way to split them up into a two-part preview, so here’s what we’re going to do: Today, we’ll look at the seven teams that aren’t in Oklahoma or Texas. Next week, we’ll visit the conference’s geographic heart.
Let’s preview the Big 12!
Every week through the offseason, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 133 FBS teams. The previews will include 2022 breakdowns, 2023 previews and burning questions for each team.
Earlier previews: Conference USA, part 1 | Conference USA, part 2 | MAC East | MAC West | MWC Mountain | MWC West | Sun Belt West | Sun Belt East | AAC, part 1 | AAC, part 2 | Independents | ACC, part 1 | ACC, part 2 | Pac-12, part 1 | Pac-12, part 2
2022 recap
In a conference with so many tight games, the teams that win them, win the league. The past four Big 12 championship game participants — Baylor and Oklahoma State in 2021, Kansas State and TCU in 2022 — went a combined 19-6 in one-score finishes, 17-4 outside of their down-to-the-wire title game battles. TCU eventually reached the CFP championship game last fall, but K-State took down the Horned Frogs in a 31-28 overtime thriller in Arlington, Texas.
Iowa State, meanwhile, lost six of seven one-score games (the Cyclones have lost 10 of their past 11) and finished just 4-8, thanks primarily to a disappearing offense. Kansas stole all of ISU’s points, surging to ninth in offensive SP+ and eking out its first bowl bid in 14 years. West Virginia, meanwhile, sported its best offense in four years and its worst defense in 10 on the way to a 5-7 finish.
The conference’s newcomers all left the Group of 5 with a whiff of disappointment. UCF reached the AAC title game in Gus Malzahn’s second season but lost three of four to end the year. Cincinnati started 6-1 but lost three of six, then lost transcendent head coach Luke Fickell to Wisconsin. BYU brought one of the country’s most experienced teams into 2022 and started 4-1, but a defensive collapse led to a four-game losing streak and 8-5 finish.
2023 projections
Teams in bold are discussed in today’s preview.
Winning a ton of close games one year often means disappointment the next. Baylor and Oklahoma State, after all, went just 13-13 combined last year after their 2021 successes. Still, even factoring in the late-game clutchitude, K-State did finish ninth in SP+ and is therefore projected a solid 23rd despite losing quite a few stars. Kansas’ defense and ISU’s offense will determine whether either or both teams can improve overall, and of the newbies, UCF appears to bring the most upside to the table in year one.
Burning questions
Does K-State still have the firepower? With TCU reaching the CFP and beating Michigan, it’s easy to almost forget who actually won the Big 12 last year. Granted, that suits Kansas State’s disrespect-hungry fan base just fine, but it was indeed the Wildcats. They went 10-4 against what SP+ deemed the No. 2 schedule in the country, going 1-3 against the SP+ top 10 and 9-1 against everyone else.
After inheriting a program that had slid a bit late in Bill Snyder’s second tenure, Chris Klieman has produced three top-30 finishes in four seasons and just won K-State’s third conference title of the past eight decades. Not bad. And while the Wildcats indeed benefited from the blessings of the god of close games, they did also win six games by 20-plus points. They beat Missouri and Oklahoma State by a combined 88-12. They had upside.
Now they have to prove they can replace upside. Deuce Vaughn and Malik Knowles (combined: 2,825 rushing and receiving yards and 17 touchdowns) are gone, as are first-round defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah and a pair of draft-worthy cornerbacks (Julius Brent and Ekow Boye-Doe). Klieman is clearly getting somewhere with his North Dakota State-style developmental pipeline, but developmental programs don’t usually make big plays the way KSU did in 2022.
The Wildcats are loaded with experience on the offensive line, where All-American guard Cooper Beebe returns alongside all-conference candidates Hayden Gillum (center) and KT Leveston (left tackle). They’ve also got strong linebackers in seniors Austin Moore and Daniel Green. But to overcome both regression and close-game comeuppance, they’ll have to find a new batch of playmakers.
The most likely candidates:
• Quarterback Will Howard, who coaxed far more big plays out of the passing game (13.4 yards per completion) when he replaced an injured Adrian Martinez in the lineup.
• Running back Treshaun Ward, who averaged 6.6 yards per carry (3.1 after contact) at Florida State last season.
• Running back DJ Giddens, a sophomore and former unrated recruit from Junction City, who averaged 5.8 yards per carry (3.8 after contact!).
• Defensive ends Khalid Duke and Brendan Mott, who combined for nine sacks and each produced better pressure rates than Anudike-Uzomah.
The defensive front doesn’t return a single player who (a) is more than 250 pounds and (b) recorded more than 75 snaps last year, and the secondary returns only three of 10 players who had 100-plus snaps. Klieman brought in three defensive back transfers (including small-school stars in North Dakota State’s Marques Sigle and SE Missouri State’s Tyler Nelome) and, perhaps in a nod to the Snyder days, three juco defenders as well. But the Wildcats defense lacks proven beef, and the offense has a high bar to clear in the explosiveness department.
What’s stopping UCF from an immediate sleeper title run? It hasn’t quite come together yet for former Auburn coach Gus Malzahn at UCF. After going 41-8 with an average SP+ ranking of 17.3 from 2017 to 2020, Malzahn’s Knights still went a solid 18-9 in 2021-22, but with rankings of 59th and 46th.
We got a sustained glimpse of UCF’s capabilities for the first two months of 2022, however. After a 38-31 win over Tulane on Nov. 12, the Knights were 8-2, 21st in SP+ and 17th in the AP poll. But dynamic dual-threat quarterback John Rhys Plumlee struggled with injury down the stretch, and a relatively thin defense cratered. From the Tulane win on, the Knights lost three of four, but that doesn’t even tell the whole story: They underachieved SP+ projections in those games by an average of 20 points. It was the opposite of 2021, when they started 3-3 and finished on fire.
If depth was an issue, it probably won’t be in 2023. Malzahn brought in a bounty of transfers, among them three quarterbacks (including a pair of fun sophomore dual-threats in South Florida’s Timmy McClain and Charlotte’s Xavier Williams), three receivers, four offensive linemen (including two all-conference performers from the Group of 5 and former Alabama blue-chipper Amari Kight), former Georgia blue-chip linebacker Rian Davis and five DBs for a secondary that was particularly wobbly late in the season.
Combine that with a lovely cast of returning stars — Plumlee, receiver Javon Baker, all-AAC guard Lokahi Pauole, a disruptive and veteran-heavy defensive line, linebacker Jason Johnson — and you’re getting somewhere quickly. Looking at both known production and recruiting rankings, this is a power-conference roster; top to bottom. I think it’s the best of the four Big 12 newbies.
Malzahn does have a pair of new coordinators to break in. Former UAB offensive coordinator Darin Hinshaw replaces Chip Lindsey (now at North Carolina), while Addison Williams got promoted to defensive coordinator to replace the Arkansas-bound Travis Williams. Plus, mining veterans from the portal when there’s already a ton of seniors means UCF is going to be dealing with massive turnover and likely taking on another huge transfer load next year. Once that cycle starts, it’s hard to break. Still, UCF has experience, upside and depth. The Knights are projected underdogs in only three games, and it won’t take too many kisses from the close-games god to enjoy a big season in Orlando.
How long will it take to rebuild Iowa State’s offense? To some degree, regression was unavoidable. Iowa State lost quarterback Brock Purdy, its all-time passing leader (and a surprise hit with the San Francisco 49ers) and running back Breece Hall, its No. 2 all-time rusher. For as well as coach Matt Campbell recruits and develops, there was no way that replacements were going to immediately match those levels. Quarterback Hunter Dekkers and running back Jirehl Brock (before injury) had their moments, but that bar was always going to be too high.
Still, there’s a difference between regressing and collapsing. ISU finished 110th in offensive SP+, 107th in yards per play, 104th in points per drive, 99th in success rate and even 114th in red zone touchdown rate and 119th in turnover rate. There was almost nothing redeemable here.
Campbell had to make changes, but he did it his way, making minimal use of the transfer portal and replacing fired offensive coordinator Tom Manning with an internal hire, Nathan Scheelhaase. A former Illinois QB, the 32-year-old Scheelhaase is a well-regarded up-and-comer, but it doesn’t seem like he’ll be looking to reinvent the wheel. ISU will still look to run well, make use of play action and get the tight ends more involved again. With four returning starting linemen, a healthy Brock, solid slot man Jaylin Noel and tight end DeShawn Hanika (who emerged late in 2022 as a potential up-the-seam weapon), the Cyclones boast far more useful experience than they did last year. We’ll see if that is enough to create a solid rebound.
Better quarterback play would help immensely. Dekkers is blessed with a big arm and athleticism but showed little of either, averaging just 10.1 yards per completion (which suggests quick, safe passing) but taking 26 sacks and throwing 14 interceptions (which does not). If he struggles again in 2023, we could get an earlier-than-preferred look at blue-chip freshman J.J. Kohl.
This time around, it’s the defense dealing with solid turnover. But coordinator Jon Heacock gets the benefit of the doubt. Over the past six seasons, Iowa State has averaged a 21.7 defensive SP+ ranking. That the Cyclones allowed 14 or fewer points seven times last year but went just 4-3 in those games tells you all you need to know. Still, losing two strong ends (Will McDonald IV and MJ Anderson), plus their best linebacker and safety, hurts. They’ve got the beef they need for Heacock’s 3-3-5, Gerry Vaughn is a solid linebacker and corners Myles Purchase and T.J. Tampa are one of the conference’s better duos. The pass rush is unproven (be on the lookout for small-sample all-star Myles Mendeszoon), but the defense should assure plenty of close games again in 2023. It’s up to the offense to reverse the Cyclones’ dismal close-game fortunes.
Will Neal Brown ever get all the arrows aligned? After a brilliant run at Troy, Neal Brown came to Morgantown as a logical replacement for Houston-bound Dana Holgorsen. In his four seasons at West Virginia, he has fielded three good defenses (including a top-10 unit in 2020), and his 2022 offense took a huge step forward thanks to a resurgent ground game. Brown had a strong track record and has brought plenty of good to the table.
He’s also gone 22-25. His first three offenses stunk, and last year’s offensive surge coincided with a defensive collapse. The 2022 Mountaineers dealt poorly with a load of defensive attrition, and after a 5-7 campaign — Brown’s third losing season in four years — it was a bit of an upset that he got a fifth year to try to right the ship. If nothing else, you can see the vision: Brown’s teams have been good at everything at least once! He just has to do all the good things at the same time.
The defense is double dipping in the turnover department, and that rarely works out well. Of the 19 players who saw at least 200 snaps last year, 12 are gone — the line returns only two of six, the secondary three of eight. Brown was aggressive in the transfer portal, bringing in four linemen (including small-school stars Tyrin Bradley and Davoan Hawkins) and four defensive backs, led by stellar Georgia Southern safety Anthony Wilson. Depth could still be perilous, but at least there are a few proven pieces.
Your view of the offense, meanwhile, depends on what you think matters the most. Last year’s run game was a strength and returns both an exciting trio of running backs (junior Justin Johnson Jr. and sophomores CJ Donaldson Jr. and Jaylen Anderson) and three line starters, including All-Big 12 center Zach Frazier. And after coordinator Graham Harrell left for Purdue, Brown made a logical move and promoted run game coordinator Chad Scott.
That’s all good and sensible, but a run game functions best when defenses have to respect the pass. West Virginia’s air attack was hit and miss last year, but quarterback JT Daniels and his top four receivers are all gone. Junior Garrett Greene will likely take over at QB, though redshirt freshman Nicco Marchiol still has a shot at the job. Greene mostly matched Daniels’ numbers in two late-season starts, and Brown attempted to spruce up the receiving corps with three transfers. NC State’s Devin Carter and Kent State slot man Ja’Shaun Poke could be particularly useful.
There’s upside here, but it feels like Brown is patching a lot of holes. A top-20 schedule features three SP+ top-20 opponents and eight foes projected 46th or better. The Mountaineers will probably have to exceed their No. 56 projection to bowl, and it’s hard to see Brown remaining in the job in 2024 if they don’t.
Are Cincinnati and BYU mistiming their respective leaps? After going 13-0 in 2008, Utah slid a bit, eventually landing in the Pac-12 in 2011 with its worst team in five years. The Utes went just 18-19 over their first three power-conference seasons before finding traction. TCU basically did the same thing, going 25-1 with two SP+ top-10 finishes in 2009 and 2010 but sliding a hair in 2011 and going 11-14 with an average SP+ ranking of 31.5 in its first two Big 12 seasons.
It’s hard to properly time a jump, either from FCS to FBS or from a mid-major conference to a power conference. In making the move up, a team probably played at a historically high level to gain the support and/or attention it needed, and by definition historically high levels are hard to maintain.
BYU and Cincinnati earned their jumps. Cincinnati should have never fallen to the G5 level in the first place, and as an independent over the last decade, BYU was a lot closer to Notre Dame than, say, UMass. Still, BYU peaked in 2020, going 11-1 and finishing seventh in SP+, and has dropped to 40th and 71st over the past two seasons. Cincinnati reached the CFP and ranked fifth in SP+ in 2021, but fell to 30th last year and lost its head coach to the Big Ten. These programs boast plenty of upside, but they might not make a great show of things for a little while.
If I’m wrong, it’s because of either the Cincinnati offense or the BYU defense (or both).
At Cincy, coach Scott Satterfield takes over after an up-and-down (and up again) tenure at Louisville. He inherits a Bearcats team that has fielded five straight awesome defenses but only briefly perked up on offense (they were in the offensive SP+ top 40 in 2020 and 2021). The Cincinnati offense slipped to 73rd in 2022 and now takes on a massive makeover: Last year’s leading passer, leading rusher, top eight receiving targets and five of six primary linemen are gone, replaced by loads of transfers. Coordinator Brad Glenn loved a nice, physical run game and dual-threat quarterback as Georgia State’s OC, and both Arizona State transfer Emory Jones and holdover Evan Prater fit the dual-threat bill. But Glenn has to hope that a lot of transfers stick quickly — it’s possible that only two members of the 2022 team will start in 2023.
The defense has some dynamite pieces to replace in the secondary, along with standout linebacker Ivan Pace, but new coordinator Bryan Brown inherits a lovely front seven. The defensive line, anchored by ends Eric Phillips and Malik Vann and tackle Jowon Briggs, should be awesome. Brown needs some strong newcomers at cornerback, though.
BYU’s fate will also depend on newcomers, even though head coach Kalani Sitake returns for an eighth season. He’ll have a new starting quarterback (likely USC and Pitt transfer Kedon Slovis), new blood at running back and receiver, transfers on the O-line and, most importantly, a new defensive coordinator. Jay Hill comes to Provo after a long, solid run as Weber State’s head coach, and he’s got work to do: In the past two seasons, BYU has fallen from 19th to 56th to 95th in defensive SP+. After a solid start last year, the Cougars allowed 6.1 yards per play and 31.1 points per game over their final 11 contests.
There are plenty of defensive transfers for Hill to play with (including a couple from Weber State), but almost none of them have a proven FBS track record beyond former Utah State linebacker AJ Vongphachanh. The Cougars have good size up front, but it feels like a defensive turnaround could take a while. And a schedule with six projected top-40 opponents suggests that their No. 60 projected ranking could be an impediment to bowl eligibility.
Does Kansas’ defense have a Kansas offense-like leap in it? The number of standout coaching performances in 2022 was off the charts. Sonny Dykes led TCU to the national title game. Jim Mora took a UConn team that was 4-32 from 2018 to 2021 and bowled immediately. Willie Fritz flipped Tulane from 2-10 to 12-2, and Mike Elko flipped Duke from 3-9 to 9-4. Oregon State’s Jonathan Smith! Illinois’ Bret Bielema! Washington’s Kalen DeBoer! So many wild turnarounds.
Amid this crowded field, Lance Leipold’s 2022 performance still stood out. Kansas bowled! Kansas! The team that didn’t win more than three games in a season for 12 years! Even UConn had bowled four times since the last time Kansas had!
Leipold took the Kansas job after spring practice had ended in 2021 and labored through a rough first fall in Lawrence. But his Jayhawks found a spark on offense late in the season, then exploded to start 2022. They averaged 42 points per game during a 5-0 start and finished ninth in offensive SP+ to drive a 6-7 campaign.
Just imagine what Kansas could have done with a defense. The Jayhawks finished 110th in defensive SP+. They were average at big-play prevention but dreadfully inefficient, ranking 123rd in success rate allowed and 126th in three-and-out rate. Defensive coordinator Brian Borland, who came with Leipold from Buffalo (and from Wisconsin-Whitewater before that), tried to keep as many bodies as possible near the line of scrimmage. But the Jayhawks still got pushed around up front, and while their cornerbacks were decent, they weren’t good enough to handle a heavy load of pressure.
Leipold made some intriguing portal additions — 325-pound Colorado State transfer Devin Phillips fills an obvious need for beef on the DL, and blue-chip sophomores Dylan Brooks (Auburn linebacker) and Damarius McGhee (LSU nickel back) are young and exciting — but the projected two-deep does not provide a lot of reason to expect massive improvement. If there’s reason for hope, it’s that we didn’t see KU suddenly boasting a top-10 offense last year either.
In fairness to Borland, offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki had Jalon Daniels last year and Borland didn’t.
Daniels was a revelation in 2022. He looked like a Heisman contender early on, throwing for 890 yards and 11 touchdowns and rushing for another 320 yards and four scores in the first four games. He missed a month with injury and didn’t quite have the same firepower late, but he was still good enough to finish second in Total QBR. He’s back, along with ace backup Jason Bean, all of his receiving corps, most of his offensive line and one of the best running backs in the Big 12 in Devin Neal. SP+ projects regression, if only because of recent history and recruiting rankings; if Daniels plays like he did last September, this is a potential top-10 offense again.
My 10 favorite players
QB Jalon Daniels, Kansas. We had a run of 3,000-passing yard, 1,000-rushing yard seasons in the 2010s, but we haven’t had one since Jalen Hurts in 2019. If Daniels is healthy for 13 games, he has 3,000/1,000 potential.
QB Will Howard, Kansas State. Had he been in the lineup for enough snaps, Howard would have finished 10th in Total QBR. K-State averaged 5.7 yards per play and 28.4 points per game without him, then ramped up to 6.1 and 36.1, respectively, with him.
QB John Rhys Plumlee, UCF. What, you expected me not to put a guy who had 2,586 passing yards, 862 rushing yards, 25 total touchdowns … plus 11 doubles, 10 home runs, 32 RBIs, 18 stolen bases and 93 putouts in 2022-23 on the list?
RB Devin Neal, Kansas. Daniels provides the efficiency, Neal provides the explosiveness. He had rushes of 80, 63, 46 and 42 yards and a reception of 53 yards, and he rushed a combined 56 times for 414 yards against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech in November.
LG Cooper Beebe, Kansas State. The perfect left guard. He’s 6-foot-4, 332 pounds. He attempted 919 blocks, committed one penalty and, per Sports Info Solutions, suffered just five blown blocks in 14 games. Goodness.
DE Tre’mon Morris-Brash, UCF. The senior from Richmond, Virginia, led the Knights in tackles for loss (13.5), sacks (six) and run stops (19). He also threw in a pair of fumble recoveries and three pass breakups just for fun.
DE Malik Vann, Cincinnati. The senior returns after a season-ending injury in 2022. His potential is off the charts: In just 393 snaps in 2021, he recorded 11 TFLs, 9 run stops and 3.5 sacks. Cincy’s front seven is still super dangerous.
ILB Lee Kpogba, West Virginia. The Syracuse transfer had a lot of messes to clean up in 2022 (and probably will again in 2023). He made a tackle every 7.4 snaps, from sideline to sideline, but still found time to disrupt, logging 3.5 TFLs and 14 run stops.
ILB AJ Vongphachanh, BYU. A perfect portal find for the wobbly Cougars defense. Like Kpogba, Vongphachanh combined the elements of a perfect mess cleaner (100 tackles with only eight missed tackles) with strong disruption (8.5 TFLs, 17 run stops).
CB T.J. Tampa, Iowa State. In Tampa and Myles Purchase, ISU has both kinds of good cornerbacks. Purchase wasn’t disruptive but allowed a 27.1 QBR in coverage; Tampa, meanwhile, was the fun one, allowing a 61.9 QBR but finishing with an interception, 10 breakups, 4.5 TFLs and 6 run stops. He sticks his nose where it doesn’t belong.
Anniversaries
In 1973, 50 years ago, George Amundson became Iowa State’s first first-rounder. This spring, Will McDonald IV became Iowa State’s second first-round draft pick, going to the New York Jets with the 15th pick. That gives us a reason to celebrate the first one, too.
In 1971, Amundson was one of the best running backs in the Big 8, rushing for 1,316 yards and 15 touchdowns and catching 22 passes for an ISU team that jumped to 8-4 and bowled for the first time ever. In 1972, head coach Johnny Majors moved Amundson to quarterback, where he threw for 2,110 yards and 17 touchdowns and rushed for 508 yards and nine more scores, earning Big 8 Player of the Year honors, finishing seventh in the Heisman voting and eventually going to the Houston Oilers as the 14th pick in the 1973 draft.
In 1983, 40 years ago, BYU jumped into the top 10. Heading into 1983, LaVell Edwards had already succeeded wildly in what was previously seen as a dead-end job. Hired in 1972, he decided to turn the Cougars’ attack into one of the most pass-happy in the country and led the school to its first bowl in 1974 and first ranked finish in 1977. They finished in the AP top 15 three straight years from 1979 to 1981, and in 1983, with a lefty named Steve Young throwing for 3,902 yards and 33 touchdowns, BYU lost its opening game to Baylor and then ripped off 11 straight wins, knocking off Missouri in the Holiday Bowl and finishing seventh in the polls.
The next year, they would finish six spots higher.
In 1988, 35 years ago, West Virginia played for the national title. After a mid-1980s lull following a run of nine-win seasons, Don Nehlen had all the pieces he needed for another run in 1988.
West Virginia averaged 42.9 points per game during an 11-0 regular season. Quarterback Major Harris nearly became the first 2,000/1,000 quarterback, throwing for 1,915 yards, rushing for 962 and finishing fifth in the Heisman vote. (He would finish third in 1989.) The Mountaineers got a shot at top-ranked Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, with the winner all but assured of the national title. But Harris separated his shoulder on the third play of the game, and an early 16-0 hole was too much to overcome in a 34-21 loss.
In 1998, 25 years ago, Kansas State peaked. Bill Snyder had taken over the most moribund program in major college football, one that had gone a combined 4-50-1 over the five seasons before his arrival. He pulled off a winning season in his third year, took the Wildcats to a bowl and a ranked finish in his fifth and had them in the top 10 by his seventh. And in 1998, he painted his masterpiece, a team with not only the customary devastating defense and special teams but also the highest-scoring offense in the country. K-State finally took down Nebraska and needed only to beat Texas A&M in the Big 12 championship game to play for the national title.
Alas …
Snyder would continue winning and finally snared a Big 12 title in 2003. But the 1998 Cats were his best team.
In 2008, 15 years ago, Kansas won a bowl. In the Insight Bowl against Minnesota, the Jayhawks went on a 28-0 run to turn a 14-7 deficit into a commanding lead, eventually cruising 42-21. Todd Reesing went 27-for-35 for 313 yards and four touchdowns, Dezmon Briscoe caught 14 balls for 201 yards and three scores, and KU finished 8-5.
I guess that’s the next drought for Lance Leipold & Co. to end.
In 2013, 10 years ago, Cincinnati started its road back. Safe to say, a program that played in the College Football Playoff and has three top-10 finishes in the past 14 years is one that should be regarded as a power program. Cincinnati was one of the prime victims of the early 2010s round of realignment, remaining in the Big East instead of moving to the Big 12 or ACC like other conference mates, then watching the Big East disintegrate and re-form as the AAC, the sixth-best conference in a landscape that boasted a “Power Five,” in 2013.
The school compounded its problems with its only shaky hire in the past 20 years (Tommy Tuberville), but Luke Fickell’s six-year tenure turned everything back around. Cincy won 44 games from 2018 to ’21 and scored its long-desired Big 12 invitation.
In 2018, five years ago, UCF’s win streak reached 25. After going 13-0 and claiming a share of the 2017 national title (hey, it happened), the Knights lost coach Scott Frost to Nebraska, replaced him with Josh Heupel and kept right on winning.
UCF walloped Pitt in nonconference play, rolled through the AAC slate and outlasted an excellent Memphis team twice — the second time without injured star quarterback McKenzie Milton — to reach 12-0. The Knights took an early 14-3 lead on Joe Burrow and LSU in the Fiesta Bowl, but the Tigers went on a 31-7 run to take control. UCF didn’t go away, cutting the deficit to eight points in the closing minutes, but a last-second interception officially ended the winning streak.